MetroFuture would strengthen the region’s leadership in core economic areas and would be positioned as a leader in emerging fields. The strongest employment growth would occur
in the business and professional services sector, and the education and health services sector. Together these sectors would grow by 165,000 jobs, or 56% of net employment growth. Both sectors require more skilled labor than the economy overall—67% of new jobs in these sectors require at least an associate or bachelors degree.

Innovation and technology-based industries are critical to the Boston region’s global competitiveness, economic base and income and wealth generation. In 2002, high tech industries (defined as 19 different industries spanning various NAICS super-sectors) accounted for almost 1 in 6 jobs but 25% of total payrolls for the Boston PMSA. While high-tech jobs declined in the early part of the 2000s decade, MetroFuture’s emphasis on a high-skilled workforce would help these industries to grow more rapidly in the future. From 2010 to 2030, high tech jobs would grow by 12%, faster than overall regional employment, and accounting for 19% of net job increases over that period.

Metro Boston has core research and development strength in ten technologies, including computer science, genomics, disease research, renewable energy, nanotechnology, and advanced materials. The “intellectual productivity” of these industries may be indicated in the number of patents awarded to local individuals
and companies, which reflect the conversion of research into new commercially useful and profitable goods. Studies have shown a strong relationship between patent activity and employment growth for US metropolitan areas. Massachusetts currently ranks fifth in national measures of patents granted per 10,000 businesses. MetroFuture would support continued increases of at least 4.75% per year in research and development funding (public and private combined); such investments would more than double the number of patents generated annually in Metro Boston from 2,700 in 2002 to 6,200 in 2030. Commercialization of these patents would strengthen the region’s economy, both through royalties and through some capture of downstream manufacturing activities.

Regardless of the number of patents in the region, the region is likely to lose 46,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector from 2000 – 2030, a 16% decline that mirrors national trends. Most of these (60%) are jobs that do not require a high school degree. MetroFuture recognizes the importance of manufacturing jobs to the region, but does not seek to halt this decline altogether. Such an effort would run counter to global trends and would be stymied by the region’s many competitive disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, including a high wage workforce, limited land availability, and high energy costs. While the region cannot gain all of the downstream commercial activities, especially for cost-driven standardized production activities, it may be able to retain activities that require highly skilled labor and on-going interaction with research and development services. MetroFuture focuses on mitigating projected losses by attracting a limited number of jobs in manufacturing that are directly linked to the region’s strengths, such as pharmaceutical or solar panel manufacturing.

If Current Trends continue, the region would have slower growth in Business and Professional Services and Education and Health Services (only 140,000 jobs), partially due to a significant shortage of skilled workers with a 2- or 4-year college degree. The region’s innovation capacity would also be reduced due to slower growth in research and development spending due to increased competition for federal research and development funds and global outsourcing of R&D; growth in patent generation would be 20% less than under MetroFuture.

Objectives:

• Total employment in the region will grow by 11%, or 292,000 jobs.
• Sectors that require a more highly skilled workforce will grow faster than the region’s employment overall.
• Total research and development (R&D) funding, from both public and private sources, will grow at least 5% annually.
• Metro Boston will be ranked in top ten in the nation in number of patents per 10,000 businesses.